Abstract: Philips Lighting expects 2009 global market size of 630-700 GM billion in 2010-2020 will be the average of 6% per year. Technology, LED light effect has reached the requirements of an alternative to traditional light sources, LED lighting restrain the rapid spread of the major factors is its high cost.
Philips expects 2009 global market size for the 630-700 general lighting billion in 2010-2020 will be the average growth rate of 6%. Output value in the general lighting, lighting fixtures and lighting applications account for about 70% of the share accounted for about 20% of the bulb. This replacement bulb from the needs of some major, some light bulbs as the light source has been calculated in the lamps and lighting applications.
Market drivers: from technology to cost
LED industry for its excellent performance is generally considered ideal for the fourth generation light sources, LED light source in luminous efficiency, lifetime, response time, and environmental protection are better than incandescent, fluorescent and other traditional sources.
LED luminous efficiency increased every year, has reached the general lighting applications. From the Cree 2010, the latest published results, the current white LED luminous efficiency of its laboratory to 200lm / w, commercial chips to 160lm / w, and plans volume production in 2013 200lm / w of the LED. LED lighting package module with luminous efficiency of 160lm / w in mind, after the process of light from the light source to the loss of about 50% of the lamps light output performance to achieve 80lm / w, still more than the current fluorescent 60-80lm / w of the light efficiency, and much more than incandescent 10-15lm / w efficiency. Effect from the light on, LED lighting to replace traditional light sources have reached the standard.
Commercialization of products currently have reflected LED light effect on the advantages, such as LED light bulbs with screw-type base design, and can be used to replace traditional incandescent bulbs, do not need to change the existing lamp and line, according to size and mount by E26 and E17 bulb type size, 4W for LED bulbs to replace 25W incandescent bulbs, 6W to 40W LED bulbs can replace incandescent bulbs, 10W to 60W LED bulbs can replace incandescent bulbs.
Technology, LED light effect has reached the requirements of an alternative to traditional light sources, LED lighting restrain the rapid spread of the major factors is its high cost. The future development of LED lighting, the main direction should not be lm / w to represent the technological upgrading, but the $ / lm represented costs.
In addition to technology and costs, national and regional government's positive attitude towards energy conservation, to stop and disable the incandescent product plans, is to promote LED lighting alternative to the important factors occur. Planning in many developed countries around 2012 to stop manufacturing and prohibit the use of incandescent bulbs, LED, with its energy saving and environmental protection advantages, is the ideal alternative to incandescent lamps, once the appropriate technology and cost, is expected to be the policy of Governments on the support.
LED lighting industry, the timing of investment
By analyzing the TV backlight LED occurred in the area of fluorescent lamps (CCFL) in the substitution process can be found in CCFL backlight LED price difference relative to the fastest period of decline, there is a rapid increase in penetration rate of LED backlighting time.
We believe that, LED lighting alternative to traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting will repeat the process. In LED lighting products with the traditional lighting products during the rapid decline in the price difference, LED lighting penetration will increase rapidly. In the LED industry, there is a Roland Haitz by the Agilent's Haitz law, is considered the LED industry, Moore's Law. LED commercially since the cost per lumen ($ / lm) decreased by about 20% per year, and from recent data, the brightness improvement and cost reduction has accelerated the trend.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy forecasts, the cost lumens white LED package from 2009 25 $ / klm, down to 2015 2 $ / klm, the average annual cost reduction of 30% or more, while the annual average between 2010-2012 fell almost 40%. We believe ,2011-2012 LED and traditional lighting will spread the fastest time down, LED lighting penetration produced during this period will increase by leaps and bounds. According to our calculations, the $ / lm is the unit of measurement in 2012 LED lighting costs will be reduced to about twice as fluorescent lamps, such as the relative fluorescent LED life span of about 2.5 times the account, will make about LED lighting in 2012 ahead of the total cost of fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that LED lighting, large-scale alternative to the end of 2011, early 2012 will start ,2011-2012 LED lighting industry is an important investment timing.
At present the traditional lighting, including fluorescent, incandescent, halogen, HID, each general lighting revenues 36%, 23%, 16%, 13%. With the disabled in countries incandescent, fluorescent replacement of incandescent lamps, LED lamps instead of incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be carried out concurrently. Because of commercial / industrial enterprises are more sensitive to electricity costs, the government enterprises become more stringent energy conservation requirements and other reasons, commercial / industrial use of energy efficient lighting products more positive performance. We believe that the LED light source alternative with the same process will repeat this, LED lighting alternative to first in the commercial / industrial place, get a good role model, and then gradually spread to household lighting.
LED lighting industry chain analysis
LED lighting industry chain and the first part of the same chain of traditional LED applications, but the latter part of the LED lighting module (light) and LED lighting production extension. Changes in the industrial chain to bring the competitive landscape changes, walk down the upstream enterprises and downstream enterprises upward migration, vertical integration was accelerated. Dramatic changes in the industrial chain, LED lighting chain, we focus on two aspects of packaging and applications. Package: module production is the future trend.
LED packages connected to the LED chip upstream and downstream applications, lighting, LED light bulbs that affect the determinants of luminous efficiency, but also determine the cost of LED light bulbs the main component. LED lighting requires high levels of packaging technology to improve the barriers to entry. Unlike traditional applications support package (including Piranha package), and SMD packages (SMD), LED lighting power required is greater and therefore higher density multi-chip package, the application of heat generated when a large, heat the problem will lead to bad the rapid aging of phosphors, resulting in reduction of product life, heat dissipation is an important technical problems to be solved.
COB multi-chip package, board alumina or aluminum nitride to a smaller size, high density packaging packaging dozens or hundreds of LED chips, the internal line is the hybrid type, that is, multiple chips series, there are several road parallel to the manufacturers of the production process is very demanding. Therefore, the field of applied LED lighting package, for packaging companies a higher level of technology requirements, increased barriers to entry.
Modular package will be part of the development trend. We believe that, LED lighting products, consumer goods, positioning should not be optional, and should belong to the mass consumer goods, LED light source modular, easy to mass production, is to reduce the cost of LED lighting, efficient way, for non-special-purpose general lighting, LED modular production advantage. Therefore, LED lighting, modular package is a trend. Standard DRAM products like white LED packages / modules will appear to the lower reaches of the LED lamp / lighting manufacturers a lot of supply.
LED Bulb / lamp and LED lighting manufacturers to enter the LED industry chain of the new being. Through the installation of LED lighting module power circuit through optical design, lighting products can be produced, there will be influx of new entrants. However, LED lamps LED lighting module to the production assembly process is not a simple process, LED lighting design involves the power management and conversion, drive circuit, control and sensing, thermal management, optical mixing and diffusion, extraction, and many other optical factors, the threshold current than the industry expected a higher quality early stages of development is very good and the bad situation may occur. We believe that the LED industry chain began to cut into the traditional lighting companies, with its accumulation in the field of optical design, LED lighting in the possession of certain advantages in areas such as Zhejiang Sunshine, really bright, NVC lighting.
Channels for the king's law applies. LED lighting, the development of enterprises there are two paths, one manufacturer, and second channels. The LED bulb / lamp manufacturing companies, large-scale low-cost manufacturing is the most important competitive edge, which is the advantage of Chinese companies, China is already a lighting manufacturing country, but in the majority of exports are OEM products . Own brands and channels for the control of LED application companies, has the advantage of customer and market the company's profitability has significantly improved, the channel for the king's law also applies to LED lighting applications. Manufacturing and channel these two paths do not contradict with the layout of large-scale production capacity and an early application of the channel LED lighting LED lighting companies will take the process of alternative opportunities.
LED lighting industry investment logic
We believe that, LED lighting, large-scale alternative to the end of 2011, early 2012 will start ,2011-2012 LED lighting industry is an important investment timing. LED lighting products, replacement will be the first in the commercial / industrial place, get a good role model, and then gradually spread to household lighting. We are optimistic about the LED lighting industry chain and downstream applications in high-end packaged enterprise. We are optimistic about the long-term development of LED industry in the next 5 years is the golden age of development of the industry to maintain the industry's "recommended" rating.
High-end package: attention in the high-end package, high-brightness high-power packaging technology has gained a certain middle packaging company, we believe that LED lighting modular packaging field is the development trend of the future, we will have the ability to tap from the existing LED lighting business to the lighting module upgrade package and the company.
Downstream applications: downstream applications in the LED, we choose a certain size, with their own brand of LED lighting manufacturer, size, and channels are in fierce competition to win the downstream edge. LED lighting manufacturer on the basis of the traditional business to expand the field of solid state lighting, bringing the valuation of the increase, while its position in the industry chain closer to end consumers, but also in the electronic components industry, the trend decline in the overall boom of the ideal defensive species, such as Zhejiang Sunshine, NVC lighting.
According to statistics LEDinside, 2009, the global lighting market, LED lighting value of about 24 billion U.S. dollars, penetration is only 3.3%. Philips LED lighting is expected to universal in the global lighting market by 2015 the proportion will rise to 50%, 80% in 2020.
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